Who will be the next US president? If we stick to the most recent polls, the answer seems clear. Hillary Clinton, former Senator of the State of New York after months of voting seems to be on course to become the first president of the United States. Many things can still happen, and nothing is certain, but advanced moves by the Democrats are important and the difficulties of the Republican campaign by the Trump Organization does not seem to stack up.
An American site, that specializes in the analysis of data and compilation of statistics, went even a step further. They found, to date, Donald Trump has only a 20% chance of becoming President of the United States of America. The site is based on several surveys conducted in each country of the USA.
A particular focus is centered on the electoral college of the United States and its constitution, because the election of the American President is actually indirect. In November, Americans thus did not vote for candidates for the presidency and vice presidency of the country, but for electors, numbering 538, promising to vote for those candidates. These voters make up that famous electoral college. In common terms, the winner will be the candidate who manages to collect at least 270 votes among the 538 given by the electors.
In this game, Hillary Clinton is on track to exceed the threshold of 270 votes. The electors of the West Coast and the East Coast should thus give most of their votes to the candidate. Those from southern states like Texas, Louisiana, and South Carolina should not surprisingly go for their choice of Donald Trump. To date (the data is updated regularly), Hillary Clinton succeeded in reaping 355 votes of electors.
Forecast sites seem more serious, the data on which they are based are varied and numerous. But site members had failed to predict the hurricane that represented Donald Trump, who, during the primaries, won more votes than any candidate in the history of the Republican Party. In an interview to Podcast This American Life (in English), Harry, a site analyst says the site missed several elements or misinterpreted some. See you in November to see what it is.